Workshop with local stakeholders (Guadeloupe, 2019)
© BRGM - Y. Legendre
The need
In the current context of climate change, many economic and social sectors, such as the Jarry industrial zone (the economic heart of Guadeloupe) and the city of Pointe-à-Pitre, are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards. It is therefore crucial to assess the direct and indirect economic impact that could be generated by coastal flooding and retreat of the coastline if adaptation measures are not taken to reduce the effects.
The aim of the project is to provide local decision-makers with a precise assessment of the most appropriate adaptation strategies for reducing the impact of coastal risks and improving Guadeloupe's resilience to climate change.
Flooded areas, water heights, buildings and roads at risk - modelling results for the projected benchmark event in 2050
© BRGM
The results
The methodology used by BRGM in this study combines hydrodynamic modelling of coastal flooding, data collection from local stakeholders (business leaders and public authorities) and economic calculations. The first phase was designed to determine the direct costs of the flooding, while the second phase focused on the indirect costs in the Jarry and Pointe-à-Pitre zones. A final phase will provide an assessment for the pilot site of Sainte-Anne (a seaside resort case) and then, more generally, for the whole area, and propose adaptation strategies developed in collaboration with local stakeholders.
In the Jarry zone, direct costs have been estimated at €21m given the current situation and around €24m in 2050, taking into account the rise in sea level. The indirect cost of the flooding scenario modelled is estimated at €4m.
In the Pointe-à-Pitre zone, the study reveals a higher level of vulnerability. While the direct costs are identical to those calculated for the Jarry zone, the indirect costs are much higher, at €13m, corresponding to 54% of the direct costs by 2050.
Using the results
The results of the various phases of this study are intended to help local stakeholders develop relevant adaptation strategies to protect the economic stakes against the effects of climate change on Guadeloupe's coastline. The aim is to facilitate the implementation of practical measures to protect vulnerable sectors.
For nearly six years, we have been working to help stakeholders adapt more and more appropriately to climate change. The study has thus rounded out our work with a more detailed analysis of urban and economic zones. A third case study is due to be carried out in a tourist zone on Sainte-Anne. The project meets the need to quantify the consequences of failing to act and to raise awareness among economic stakeholders and local authorities.
The partners
- ADEME Guadeloupe
- CCI of the islands of Guadeloupe
- Directorate for the environment, spatial planning and housing (DEAL)
- The Guadeloupe Regional Council
